July 26, 2021 – On today’s podcast, we welcome special guest, Matthew Tuttle, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management. Tuttle Capital Management is an industry leader in offering thematic and actively managed ETFs.

On the show, Matthew discusses:

  • His outlook on the current market environment and asset allocation
  • How to play pre-deal SPACs and deSPACs
  • Trend following, FOMO and tail risk strategies
  • His top investment pick for the next decade
  • And more

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Transcript:

Welcome investors to the Absolute Return Podcast. Your source for stock market analysis, global macro musings and hedge fund investment strategies. Your hosts Julian Klymochko and Michael Kesslering aim to bring you the knowledge and analysis you need to become a more intelligent and wealthier investor. This episode is brought to you by Accelerate financial technologies. Accelerate, because performance matters. Find out more at www.Accelerateshares.Com.

Julian Klymochko: Hey, Matthew, welcome to the podcast. Happy to have you on the show today to talk about all things markets and what’s going on out there. ETF land, SPACs, of course, and some additional investment strategies that you’re offering to investors, but before we get into all the good investing stuff and what’s going on in the current market environment, I mean, you’ve been in this business, investing business for over 20 years, financial services, you had a stint in fixed income sales at Bear Stearns in the late 1990s. Could you walk us a bit through your career and the background of Tuttle Capital Management and what you’re up to there?

Matthew Tuttle: Yeah, so, and it’s the risk of dating myself. It’s actually more like 30 years.

Julian Klymochko: Oh, nice.

Matthew Tuttle: Started, yeah, I’m kind of an old fart. Started out in working for a division of State Street Bank and working with closed-end funds for the most part and, you know, always planned on kind of being there, getting an MBA part-time, going to work and being a mutual fund manager. And unfortunately, they kept promoting me and I never had time for business school. Finally decided the only way I was going to do it was just pulled the plug. Left, went and got my MBA full time, went to work for Bear Stearns in fixed income sales, hated it. Looking back, I realized it just wasn’t entrepreneurial in any way shape or form.

Julian Klymochko: What did you hate about it? Was it just too constrained?

Matthew Tuttle: Yeah, I mean, you know, basically just, I didn’t know at the time, but I’m an entrepreneurial type of person. I can’t have a boss and, you know, I had three bosses who took the idea of being a boss very seriously. And I bristled against that, again I didn’t realize that at the time. I mean, looking back on it, like, oh, yeah, I can’t work for anyone. And I was working for three people who all were very opinionated about things. So that didn’t turn out that well, I then went to work for a couple of different brokerage firms. Was really appalled by what path for financial advice. Tried a couple of different insurance companies, was equally appalled at what path for financial advice. Didn’t really realize there was another route to things. And in 2003, a friend of mine gave me a book, a step-by-step guide to setting up your own RIA.

Julian Klymochko: Okay.

Matthew Tuttle: I read it. And within a couple of weeks, I had my own RIA. That was 2003, by around 2012, we started having other wealth. So, we were in the wealth management business. We started having other wealth managers come to us and say, hey, we see what you’re doing, you know, on the money management side of things, could you do that for us and be kind of our outsource chief investment officer?

Julian Klymochko: Yeah.

Matthew Tuttle: And I said fine. And, but one of them said, you know, look Matt, we’re kind of right down the street from each other. I’m sort of uncomfortable given you’re a competitor. I said, all right, here’s what I’ll do. I’ll set up a money management arm. You go to the website and won’t say anything about wealth management, they were cool with that. Fast forward a couple of years later. I mean, we’ve always been pretty active in our trading, was really bristling at trading through custodial platforms.

The Fidelities, The Schwab, The TDs. So, someone gave us the idea of, hey, why don’t you just start ETF? That way you can trade with what any broker you want. That sounds like a great idea. So, we started launching ETF, eventually got rid of our wealth management business. We ended up giving it to one of our ETF clients and we’ve been launching ETFs for ourselves. Then we started having other people coming to us saying, hey, can you launch ETFs for us? Yeah, we can do that too. And that’s kind of where we are. So today we’ve got, you know, 10 ETFs that are out there right now in the marketplace. We’ve got another seven or so in various forms of registration. And then there’s another three that will be coming fairly shortly. So, by the end of the year, we should have at least 20 ETFs out there, and maybe more

Michael Kesslering: So obviously, I mean, your business model is in structuring ETFs. This has been a prevailing trend over the last number of years. In your opinion, what’s really driving the move from mutual funds to ETFs. And just to add context to that, in Canada that’s happening to some extent, but, you know, to a far lesser extent than in the U.S. what’s really driving that in the U.S.?

Matthew Tuttle: There a lot of things there, you know, one is fees, you know, you’re actively managed mutual fund typically is going to cost. It’s definitely going to cost more than an index ETF. It is typically going to cost more than an actively managed ETF, you know. Number two is the fact that, you know, most actively managed ETF here, don’t beat the S&P 500. So, it’s kind of, you know, if I’m paying one and a half percent to not beat something that I could pay nine basis points for, that doesn’t make sense. There’s this tax sufficiency of ETF, you know, the things ETF managers can do to mitigate capital gains tax, as you can’t do in a mutual funds, there’s the fact you can trade ETFs intraday. You don’t have, you know, 60 day holds on ETFs. I can buy, you know, an ETF in the morning and sell it in the afternoon and buy it back later in the day and no one’s going to yell at me. And then what you really had since COVID is, you’ve had this kind of striation in the U.S. market where people are kind of flowing towards core and satellite.

Julian Klymochko: Right.

Matthew Tuttle: Where they’re looking at, you know, the cheap beta as the core of their portfolio. And then what they’re looking for is, they’re looking for thematic stuff to go around the cheap beta. And that kind of leave your average kind of active index, hugging mutual fund manager. They don’t fit into that model at all.

Julian Klymochko: Right.

Matthew Tuttle: So, I really do think, yeah, I mean, mutual funds are an endangered species here.

Julian Klymochko: Yeah, it seems like that is the case. You see it in the fund flows each and every month and quarter and year. And it just seems to be getting worse and worse. But getting into the money management side, obviously ETFs have been a massive growth area. You got 10 in the market and number in the hopper that should be up shortly. I wanted to understand what are your thoughts on the current market environment, very low bond yields. Investors having a real tough time generating that income that they like. And then on the equity side, specifically U.S. equities, sky high valuations, what’s an investor to do?

Matthew Tuttle: So, a lot of different things. I mean, what you’re seeing and like, you know, the past couple of days are great example, there is no alternative.

Julian Klymochko: Right.

Matthew Tuttle: You know, market sold off on Monday, everyone in the media, oh my God, this is the beginning of the end, correction, everything’s going to blow up. And you know, now we’re back higher than we were to begin with, there is no alternative. Interest rates are still extremely low, the economy is recovering, things are, you know, things are getting back to normal slowly, but surely. Earnings are blowouts, you know, so really what’s an investor to do is kind of what they’re doing, you know, put cheap beta in the core of your portfolio, put some thematic stuff around it, have some tail risk protection.

Julian Klymochko: Right.

Matthew Tuttle: And, you know, on the bond side, we’ll get absolute return types of bond strategies, or just replaced bonds entirely with, you know, tail risk or SPACs, you know, things of that nature because, I mean, treasury bonds here don’t make a whole heck of a lot of sense to me from a longer-term investor standpoint.

Julian Klymochko: Oh, totally. And you hear that each and every day, oh, these treasury yields are way too low. How the heck can I generate income? And you mentioned, you know, SPACs or these other sort of alternative asset classes, and one method of doing that, and specifically looking at your product shelf, you have strategies focused on both pre deal SPACs and de- SPACs, including both long and short, which is a super interesting way of taking a crack at it. What are your thoughts, on first? I got a number of questions on SPAC. So first, what are your thoughts on the pre deal SPAC market? How do you looking at that part of the asset class?

Matthew Tuttle: So, the pre deal SPAC market is settling in to where it’s supposed to be.

Julian Klymochko: Right.

Matthew Tuttle: Earlier in the year you had, you know, the Reddit guys, Wall Street bet guys jumping in thinking that pre-merger SPACs were like AMC and GameStop.

Julian Klymochko: And Dogecoin too.

Matthew Tuttle: I mean, and you, and I know they’re not, I mean, you know, what should $10 in trust with an experienced management team looking for a deal? What should it be trading for? I don’t know, should it be trading for 20 or 30? I would argue it shouldn’t. But you know, you were seeing some of this ridiculous stuff out there. And then, you know, CCIB kind of was, put an end to all that. But now what you’re seeing is SPAC settling in to what they should be, which is an event driven strategy that has low correlation to stocks and bonds that fits into pretty much any investor’s portfolio for, you know, 10 to 20% piece, you know, and I would argue it fits in a lot, like people are using merger arbitrage fund here, but I would argue that, you know, a well-run SPAC strategy has more potential upside than merger arbitrage does. And I mean, you know, I’ve got one of my analysts writing a paper on this, and I just kind of looked back, I mean, our fund wasn’t around during COVID, but I just said, hey, what if we took a portfolio of SPACs and own them. And I think during the COVID crisis, we would have lost 2%. And I ran like the biggest Merger Arb ETF down here and would have lost like 20.

Julian Klymochko: Yeah.

Matthew Tuttle: So, I mean, to me, down two, is a whole [Inaudible 00:12:27], if you’re putting in something diversified into your portfolio, then you know, down 20. So, you know, I really am positive on the pre-merger SPAC market play is, something that, you know, can benefit every investor’s portfolio. I mean, that being said, are there too many SPACs chasing too few deals? Yeah, you know, a lot of these deals is going to be awful? Probably. So, you know, it’s not as simple, and nothing ever is. It’s just, hey, I’m going to buy a bunch of [Inaudible 00:13:06]. You need an actively managed strategy that looking at valuations, looking at management teams, looking at track records. But if you do that, I mean, I think pre-merger SPACs are great strategies.

Julian Klymochko: You really hit the nail on the head with respect to the low risk profile and the uncorrelated nature, low draw down risk. And this is the most important piece of it, as long as they’re buying at the right price. And so, investors should certainly be aware of your warning, and we try to give the same warning. I mean, you don’t want to pay insane prices for, you know, $10 in change of cash and trust, you know, for a potential deal and a dream as it may be. Now, you indicated many, many SPACs out there. Of course, is nearly 600, a lot of business combinations getting announced. Now you guys have plays on both the long and short side of the de-SPACs. What are your thoughts on this market and how do you approach it?

Matthew Tuttle: So, the de-SPAC market, you know, so to me, the pre-merger stuff, I mean, it’s, kind of stodgy and boring.

Julian Klymochko: Yeah.

Matthew Tuttle: I mean, I love it, but compared to the de-SPAC market, I mean the de-SPAC market, that’s interesting stuff.

Julian Klymochko: It’s the wild west.

Matthew Tuttle: Yeah, you turn on CNBC every day. They’re talking about at least one, you know, one de-SPAC company, you know, Clover, Lordstown Motors, QuantumScape, SoFi, I mean, you know, on, on and on. So, there’s a lot of interesting stuff there. And I don’t find agreeing with Jim Cramer a ton, but I remember he said something along the lines of, hey, just buy a portfolio of these de-SPAC companies, put it away, don’t look at it. I mean, don’t make it a big part of your portfolio, but, you know, pick a small part of your portfolio. Buy a bunch of these de-SPAC, put it away, don’t look at it.

And some of them are zeros, but some of them are going to go up so much that, you know, it’s going to more than offset the ones that go to zero. And I think that makes a lot of sense. There are a lot of companies that, you know, are in the extreme, early stages that you can get access to here. And I mean, you know, who knows? It could be the next Tesla; it could be the next Amazon. There could be the next whatever in here, also with the understanding that, you know, this is pre-revenue stuff for the most part, it’s going to be a wild ride. And some of them are zeros, but we really built the long side [Inaudible 00:16:00] for someone to be able to say, look, I’m going to put 2- 3% of my portfolio in it, and I’m going to shove it away and I’m not going to look at it. And you don’t want to look at it because this stuff stuff is a wild ride.

Julian Klymochko: Yeah, volatile.

Matthew Tuttle: So, the short side, we really built more because we’re talking to a lot of institutions about our SPAC strategy and, you know, and they loved it. And people kept saying, you know, hey, we’re trying to short some of these de-SPACs and it’s a pain in the butt, you know, they’re hard to borrow. You get short squeezes. I mean, you know, Clover a couple of weeks ago was up like 93% in a day.

Julian Klymochko: Insane.

Matthew Tuttle: I mean, if you were short that, I mean, that wouldn’t have been a really good day for you. So, we said, all right, you know what, there’s a lot of demand out there to short these companies and why don’t we create a product around that? So, we did the work and it’s a lot of work, but it was worth it. I mean, the fund’s been pretty popular. Last time I looked; it was the top performing ETF month to date. I mean, before today, it was up like 20% or something for the first three weeks of the month. So, you know, again, it’s an index that’s going to move and de-SPAC to a really bad month. So, you know, that’s why we built that so that people could, you know, and there are a lot of people who want to short these names, who can’t short. I’ve heard from people, you know, hey, I’m trying to buy Puts. And my broker given me a hard time. So, we just wanted to make it easy for people. You don’t have to worry about short squeezes, you know, you buy one thing, you can pretty much buy it anywhere. So that’s the idea behind the de-SPAC product.

Michael Kesslering: Yeah, it’s very interesting. I mean, on the long side, certainly very similar to VC type investing where, you know, you’re looking for a few names to basically return the fund in a VC fund in their LP structure. But then as well, with both the long and short investors can even build their own long short strategy with the funds, which is quite interesting. You’ve kind of touched on it a little bit, but I guess you’ve talked about a few individual elements of the SPAC market. Do you have any additional views on the entirety of the SPAC ecosystem moving forward?

Matthew Tuttle: So, I mean, obviously the SEC, you know, put a speed bump in there and, you know, things haven’t totally come back from that. We’re in a much better spot than we were a couple of months ago, you know, IPOs are coming back, you know, deals are going through, you know, but you’ve still got, you know, a bunch of SPACs creating under 10, some well under 10. So, you know, we’re not back there yet. There’s still a stigma. I don’t think yet that the retail and the advisory community have caught on to kind of, you know, hey, look, these, aren’t a mean stock. These are, you know, a non-correlated event driven asset class that actually do belong in your portfolio. Brokerage firms, a lot of them down here still won’t allow people to buy SPAC. They’ll allow you to buy, you know, AMC and GameStop, but you can’t buy SPAC that trading at 9.80 that has $10 in trust, because we all know that that’s too risky, Mr. client.

So, you know, there still that stigma, there’s still kind of that lack of understanding, you know? And I think a lot of times the media does a really poor job of; everything is a SPAC. I mean, I don’t know about you guys, but you know, I’m watching TV and someone saying, oh, the SPAC market’s getting killed today. I look at Lordstown Motors, like, dude, that’s not a SPAC, that’s a de-SPAC. And I’m looking at SPCX and I’m like, no, we’re having a good day today. The SPAC market is not getting killed. Lordstown Motors is getting killed, because they make no money. And there’s some weird stuff going on with their financial statements. That has nothing to do with the SPAC market. So, you still have these misconceptions out there that, you know, hopefully one day this’ll be just a normal thing that, you know, that people don’t have those misconceptions about. So, you know, we’re constructive on the market. I like where it is now versus where it was a couple of months ago. And I do like where it is now versus where it was in February, because I mean, you know, we didn’t have really anything to buy.

Julian Klymochko: Exactly

Matthew Tuttle: Back in February. I mean, you know, we’re looking at this stuff, right? Yeah, It’s a good management team. These guys have a good track record. We love what they’re doing, but we’re not going to buy this for 16. It just doesn’t make any sense.

Julian Klymochko: Yeah, and that was a difficult time to allocate capital because every SPAC was trading at a premium and IPO allocations were tough to come by. Given every single deal was basically 20X oversubscribed with the Millenniums and Citadel of the world.

Matthew Tuttle: We were offering our firstborn kids to get allocations and IPO’s and you know, now brokers call it for IPO’s and we don’t answer the phone. I’ll just buy it at 9.90 when it trades in the secondary market.

Julian Klymochko: No doubt.

Matthew Tuttle: I mean, why am I going to get a 10?

Julian Klymochko: For sure, and moving beyond SPACs, I mean, you have a number of strategies, pre deals or de-SPACs, but you have some additional asset classes that you take a look at. I was interested when caught my eye, FOMO, how does that strategy work?

Matthew Tuttle: So, what FOMO is kind of our answer to what’s going on in thematic investments. So, you know, I mean money is flowing into it. I mean, people want this stuff, but the way it’s being done, I think is wrong. So, what people will, we’ll all right, we’ll slap an index on something like, you know, fuel cells or solar, you know, or social media buzz. I mean, you name it, we’ll slap an index on it. We’ll rebalance it infrequently, we’ll have large holdings and some individual stocks that, you know, if we hit comp the return up a lot, but if they go down, that sort of sucks the other way. And I thought that, you know, that was just (A) way too rigid and (B) way too risky and (C) you weren’t rebalancing frequently enough to stay in arms.

So, what we do in FOMO is, we start off with kind of in the universe of, what should be in FOMA? And that can be a moving target. So, I mean, right now, to me, it’s stuff that’s popular with retail guys. It’s stuff that’s popular with hedge funds and its innovative technology. Six months from now, maybe it’s going to be something else, you know, who knows? Maybe inflation plays we’ll get in there, maybe infrastructural get in there. You know, right now we capture that with the hedge fund and the retail stuff, but that can be a moving target so we can change as society changes. Whereas if I’m stuck in an index, the index is the index. Then what we do is, we’re looking to stay in harmony with kind of the trend. We kind of split the basket in two, and half of it we’re looking for the stocks that are in the strongest uptrend and the other half of it, we’re saying, all right, give us the stocks that have been in the strongest uptrend, but recently sold off. Because if all I did was just had a group of, you know, the momentum stocks. Most of the time, that’s great. Every once in a while, they take the momentum stocks out and they shoot up and they go down a lot. But when that happens, where does the money go? The money goes into what had been hot, but it’s been selling off recently. So, what I’ve found is by including kind of this counter trend analysis and what we do, it really ends up smoothing out the return, and then we’ll do our analysis on a weekly basis. So, we’re able to really stay in harmony with what’s going on in the market. So, you know, if I’m buying into, you know, AMC at the beginning of the month and AMC is really, you know, all the Wall Street bet guys are off to something else. And now AMC starts trading on fundamentals. I don’t have to wait a whole month or a quarter or six months to get out of it. You know, we’ll be out of it. All right, fine. I got into a Monday; you know what? I’m out of it next month.

Julian Klymochko: Now, with respect to diversification and asset allocation, most investors obviously own stocks, some will diversify with bonds, but obviously just two asset classes that really isn’t diversification, which includes theoretically uncorrelated assets, or even negatively correlated assets. One strategy that I’m a fan of is that of tail risk, which is theoretically negatively correlated. Can do well when the market sells off, typically a tough sell when beta is working so well, but then it becomes very popular after the market crashes. I understand you have a tail risk strategy. I was wondering, how does it work and how should investors use it?

Matthew Tuttle: So, what we’re trying to do there. So that’s our fat ETF. And what we’re trying to do there is have what I would call positive carry tail risk.

Julian Klymochko: Right.

Matthew Tuttle: The problem that you’ve had with tail risk strategies in the past is they bleed, and they bleed a lot. So, you know, the story coming out of 2008 was, hey, Mr. Portfolio manager put this in your portfolio because you don’t know when its tail risk events is going to happen. It’s going to cost you 3 to 4% a year. But if we have another 2008, again, man, you’re going to be a hero.

Julian Klymochko: Yeah.

Matthew Tuttle: So, all right, great. I had a near death experience in 2008, sounds good. I’ll give up return, and we don’t have another 2008. So, I mean, I saw a story, actually some pension funds in Canada had tail risk strategies that they got rid of in February 2020, right before the COVID crash because they couldn’t handle the bleed anymore. So, the idea behind that T, is we want the ability to make money the 99% of the time the market’s going up, not a lot. I mean, if the market’s up 30, if that T’s up 5, I’m a happy guy, you know, that’s kind of the goal. And then in a crash, you know, like a COVID event, in 2008, the goal is to make as much on the upside as the market is down. And so, how we do that? Is we go long volatility, we own volatility in the portfolio, because if you think about your typical investor’s portfolio, everything they own goes down when volatility goes up, or almost everything they own, so when we’re looking at kind of negative correlation, how can we guarantee that we’ve got something in a portfolio that’s going to go up when volatility goes up? And that’s owning volatility, and then we cut it by owning index ETF.

And the idea is that while the market’s going up, the index ETFs are going up obviously, and the volatility is bleeding to the downside. So, we’re getting some upside, which you know, is being cut into somewhat by the volatility. When volatility spikes, it goes up way more than the index has go down. So, for example, during COVID, if you own a VIX exchange traded products, at one point you were up 300% when the market was down like 30. So that gives you kind of the difference. So, the way the portfolio is managed is, our volatility position moves up and down. We’ll always own some volatility, but it’s going to move up and down based on kind of what’s going on in the market. So, all of last week, we were slowly buying volatility. And now as the market is selling off, we’re now bringing that volatility position back down.

Michael Kesslering: So, you spoke a little bit about your background at the beginning, but I was curious who have been some of the important mentors that you’ve had throughout your career?

Matthew Tuttle: So really two important ones. Early on I had a business school professor, Professor [Inaudible 00:30:13] who, yeah, I will never forget. He’s teaching, you know, modern portfolio theory and we’re going through and constructing optimizers and all this stuff. And we got to know each other, any he pulled me aside one day, is like, look, I’m only teaching this stuff because I have to, you know, none of it really works. It’s garbage in garbage out. And he was telling me how he developed an adaptive moving average crossover system to trade currencies that he ended up selling to a hedge fund. So, I was fascinated by that. I went home and I mean, this was like mid-nineties. So, I’m pretty sure I had excel, I had access to some data. So, I just kind of, well, you know, how would I try to construct this?

And I basically constructed an adaptive moving average crossover system, applied it to a theory on the British pound. I was like, oh my God, this is amazing. I mean, this gets you in when it starts going up and it gets you out as it starts to go down, this is great. I mean, that was just fascinating. And then later on, a guy Murray Ruggiero Jr. Smartest guy I’ve ever met, maybe the smartest guy on the planet. He was designing neural networks back before people knew what neural networks were. Worked with a lot of, kind of famous people in the trading community. Knew everything about [Inaudible 00:31:53] technical and intermarket analysis. Just a complete genius, unfortunately passed away a couple of weeks ago, but his son who was on the line earlier. Thinking that this was a call he had to be on is actually my head traders. So, I think those are the two biggest influences I’ve had.

Julian Klymochko: All right great. And Matthew, prior to wrapping things up, I got one last question for you. If you could hold just one investment for the next decade, what would it be and why?

Matthew Tuttle: One investment for the next decades?

Julian Klymochko: Yeah.

Matthew Tuttle: Oh, I would say to the next decade, it would [Inaudible 00:32:38] our long de-SPAC. As long as I didn’t have to look at it. And today, I think 10 years from now, that’s going to be ridiculous. But yeah, not looking at is the key. As long as I don’t have to look at it, 10 years from now that that thing is going to be a monster.

Julian Klymochko: Putting those de-SPAC in a lockbox and not opening it for a decade. That’s a tough to do, but if you can do it.

Matthew Tuttle: It’s down 18% this month. So yeah. You, you can’t look at it day to day, 10 years from now, yeah, totally.

Julian Klymochko: They certainly are volatile. So where can investors find out more? You got social media, website, what else you got going on?

Matthew Tuttle: So yeah, I mean, I’m on Twitter @tuttlecapital. I’m on LinkedIn, our website tuttlecap.com, you know, and you can find me in any of those places.

Julian Klymochko: Okay, perfect. Well, thanks so much Matthew for coming on the show, interested in hearing your market insights, SPACs, FOMO, tail risk, and more. So, we wish you the best and we’ll keep in touch.

Matthew Tuttle: All right. Thanks for having me.

Julian Klymochko: All right. Bye everybody.

Thanks for tuning in to the Absolute Return Podcast. This episode was brought to you by Accelerate Financial Technologies. Accelerate, because performance matters. Find out more at www.AccelerateShares.com. The views expressed in this podcast to the personal views of the participants and do not reflect the views of Accelerate. No aspect of this podcast constitutes investment legal or tax advice. Opinions expressed in this podcast should not be viewed as a recommendation or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment strategies. The information and opinions in this podcast are based on current market conditions and may fluctuate and change in the future. No representation or warranty expressed or implied is made on behalf of Accelerate as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this podcast. Accelerate does not accept any liability for any direct indirect or consequential loss or damage suffered by any person as a result relying on all or any part of this podcast and any liability is expressly disclaimed.

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