June 28, 2026 – Merger and acquisition activity is cyclical. In a booming economic environment, corporate confidence rises, capital availability increases, and valuation gaps between buyers and sellers narrow, leading to robust deal-making. Conversely, as recessionary conditions emerge and market volatility increases, boardroom confidence falls, financing becomes constrained, and valuation gaps widen, leading to a drop off in deal flow.
This cyclical dynamic was on display last year. Corporate deal activity came to a halt in spring 2025 amid trade war-related volatility, only to bounce back to record levels as markets and the economy surged in the back half of the year. The result was the highest M&A tally on record, with 206 public U.S. mergers announced worth an aggregate of $1.1 trillion.
Last year’s record announced merger transaction volume was buoyed by the three megadeals, including Union Pacific’s $85 billion railroad merger with Norfolk Southern, PIF, Silver Lake, and Affinity Partners’ $55 billion buyout of video game company Electronic Arts, and Paramount Skydance’s whopping $110 billion acquisition of media conglomerate Warner Bros Discovery. All of these deals have yet to close.
Despite an earlier surge in market volatility due to the war in Iran, the bull market for dealmakers has continued in 2026. Year-to-date, there have been 92 public U.S. mergers announced (3.5 per week on average) worth a total of $585 billion. If this pace were to continue, annualizing the year-to-date tally takes it to $1.2 trillion – a level 6% greater than last year.
Source: Accelerate
Jumbo M&A deals do not happen in bear markets or challenging economic environments. As the U.S economy continues to grow at a brisk pace and equity markets continue to notch all-time highs, headline-shattering jumbo M&A deals continue to be struck. The first half’s deal tally was highlighted by one jumbo transaction in particular – NextEra Energy’s proposed $120 billion merger with Dominion Energy to create the world’s largest regulated electric utility business. The merger, announced last month, is one of the largest on record, leading to the second highest monthly deal volume in the past decade.
Source: Accelerate
While the booming U.S. public M&A market (excluding special purpose acquisition companies) is on track to exceed 2025’s record year of $1.1 trillion, in contrast, the SPAC market has not experienced similar positive momentum.
Although the year-to-date tally of $42 billion in announced SPAC mergers is set to be the highest in five years if it continues through the remainder of 2026, it would still be -85% lower than 2021’s record $545 billion in deals. The SPAC market is showing signs of life, although it remains stuck in the mud.
Source: Accelerate
The AlphaRank.com Merger Monitor below represents Accelerate’s proprietary analytics database on all announced liquid U.S. mergers. The AlphaRank Merger Arbitrage Effective Yield represents the average annualized returns of all outstanding merger arbitrage spreads and is typically viewed as an alternative to fixed income yield.
Each individual merger is assigned a risk rating:
- AA – a merger arbitrage rated ‘AA’ has the highest rating assigned by AlphaRank. The merger has the highest probability of closing.
- A – a merger arbitrage rated ‘A’ differs from the highest-rated mergers only by a small degree. The merger has a very high probability of closing.
- BBB – a merger arbitrage rated ‘BBB’ is of investment grade and has a high probability of closing.
- BB – a merger arbitrage rated ‘BB’ is somewhat speculative in nature and has a greater than 90% probability of closing.
- B – a merger arbitrage rated ‘B’ is speculative in nature and has a greater than 85% probability of closing.
- CCC – a merger arbitrage rated ‘CCC’ is very speculative in nature. The merger is subject to certain conditions that may not be satisfied.
- NR – a merger-rated NR is trading either at a premium to the implied consideration or a discount to the unaffected price.
The AlphaRank merger analytics database is utilized in running the Accelerate Arbitrage Fund (TSX: ARB), which may have positions in some of the securities mentioned.
* AlphaRank is exclusively produced by Accelerate Financial Technologies Inc. (“Accelerate”). Visit Alpharank.com for more information. Disclaimer: This research does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. Data provided in this research should not be viewed as a recommendation or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment strategies. The information in this research is based on current market conditions and may fluctuate and change in the future. Accelerate does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of relying on all or any part of this research and any liability is expressly disclaimed. Accelerate may have positions in securities mentioned. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
